How to Assess Your Risk

Excerpt from “COVID experts said “This is it.” then Omicron hit…” by Kellie Hwang, SF Chronicle, Dec 13, 2022

Wachter understands that “it’s exhausting to continuously reassess risk” and that some people have put the pandemic behind them and gone back to “living like it’s 2019.”

“If you’re up to date with your vaccines and boosters, including the new one, and you’re not at very high risk, that’s not an unreasonable call,” he said. “You have very little risk of a severe case, virtually no risk of death, and about a 5% risk of long COVID.”

UCSF infectious disease expert Dr. Peter Chin-Hong concurred that your COVID risk remains based on two factors: who you are, and the company you keep.

“In general, COVID continues to have more serious consequences in unboosted seniors (over 65), and those who are severely compromised and not up to date on vaccines,” he said. “For everyone else it generally has milder consequences, but symptoms can still not be fun or a walk in the park.”

Because Wachter is older and doesn’t want to risk long COVID, he said he continues to mask in crowded indoor spaces, and assesses his activities based on case rates. Anywhere below 10 cases per 100,000 means he’ll feel comfortable getting together in small groups without masks. With higher case rates, he’ll add safety precautions such as testing, and will forgo certain activities such as eating indoors.

Stanford’s Liu advised paying attention to public health guidance, which will vary based on the level of community risk.

“We still want people to live their lives, though,” she said. “Adjusting our behavior according to local conditions is similar to putting on a raincoat and bringing an umbrella when it’s raining and putting them away when the sun is shining.”

Read the SF Chronicle Dec 13, 2022 article